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Global Pharmaceutical & Biotechnology Outlook 2013

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The coming years will see Japan pharma regaining its status as innovator driven with Edoxaban for Daiichi Sankyo, Canagliflozin for Mitsubishi Tanabe, and Dolutegravir for Shionogi bringing the good times back for the respective companies in 2013 and carrying enough potential to change global market dynamics in the anticoagulant, diabetes and HIV space resp. We think that the massive ~$45b poured in acquiring innovation by Japanese companies does not justify its value as we find that the key catalysts from Japan are in-house candidates. Changing political scenario in Japan will accelerate the pace of reforms in Japan as recently; the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) of Japan came back into power replacing the short tenure of the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ). LDP was the pioneer initiator of major healthcare reforms with a focus on curbing healthcare costs by means of enhancing generic drugs penetration. Our report discusses in details about the implications of these changes on Innovator and generic domestic Japanese pharma companies.

Global companies on the other hand are going to see a favorable scenario in coming years - expected launches in 2013-2014 from global companies will increase competition to domestic players mainly in the respiratory, oncology and rheumatoid arthritis therapy areas, and will increase overall market size of Diabetes and Osteoporosis markets.

Going forward, for 2013 –Generic companies will continue to witness a growth story, we think that the recent incentives to promote generic uptake have played out well and at current levels, we do not see meaningful growth until early 2014 when new set of incentives will start playing off. However, in the related space – drug chain stores and biogenerics are two new arenas which we see as next growth drivers – we have analyzed these two novel spaces as well in this report.

I. Performance in 2012 – The Hits & Misses

II. Japan Pharma: Looking forward in 2013 and beyond
Stand on individual companies
Changing political scenario is likely to accelerate the pace of reforms

III. Analysis on Innovators Companies – Innovation and consolidation
continue to serve as catalyst
Rich Looking Pipeline Could be delusive
Key R&D catalysts from Japan pharma
Key upcoming milestones
Expected upcoming launches from global companies in Japan and its implications
Likely implications of recent consolidation activities
Sustainability thru increasing overseas base

IV. Analysis on Generic Companies
2012 – price cuts & implications
New layer of reforms playing out well
Dominance of big players in dispensing pharmacy
Shrinking general practitioners market
DPC hospitals are new growth avenue

V. Analysis on Drug Chain Stores
Macro forces favoring Drug Chain Stores
Success story from a few, likely to be replicated by followers

VI. Analysis on Biogeneric Companies
Evolving Biogenerics space in Japan

1. DAIICHI SANKYO (4569): Edoxaban Will Bequeath Wings To The Price!
• Sum of parts valuation
• Lixiana/Edoxaban-Has Key Differentiating Features
• Key clinical data analysis
• Denosumab: Will Contribute To Bottom Lines Despite Partnering
• Worst Is Priced In For Ranbaxy Performance
• Daiichi Sankyo Espha (DSE) - A Game Changer In Japan Generic Market

2. KYORIN (4569): Respiratory Franchise Strengthening Up!
• Catalyst to strengthen respiratory frenchise
• KRP-108 – The key driver
• Kipres Continues To Drive Growth In Anti-Asthmatic Market
• Uritos Sales Ramping Up Well
• Rapport with GPs Keeps Mucodyne Sales Stable:
• Key In-House Candidates Look For Partners

3. MITSUBISHI TANABE (4508): Canagliflozin is Key, But Other Drivers Also In Queue!
• Canagliflozin Is Showing Promise Of Better Safety And Efficacy
• Canagliflozin : CV Safety Issues Are Manageable
• Domestic Business Faces High Long-Listed Exposure, New Catalysts Will
Continue To Grow
• Remicade Franchise And Telavic Will Support Declining Domestic Business
• Teneligliptin Set To Enjoy Favorable DPPIV Market In Japan
• Royalty Income From Gilenya Continues To Grow
• Avanafil Prospects Depends Upon Vivus Marketing Partner
• Higher Dividend Expected During MTP

For more information kindly visit :

Global Pharmaceutical & Biotechnology Outlook 2013: Japan Pharma


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