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Global Pharmaceutical & Biotechnology Outlook 2013

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Profitable Biotech (Mature Biotech) and non-Profitable Biotech companies (Rising stars) have developed innovative drugs for treatment of chronic and non chronic diseases. In the next five years the distinction between mature biotech companies and large global pharma is likely to disappear as investment in R&D and acquisition start delivering and Market Cap match the large global pharma. Dividend and consolidation could be the future drivers and continue to attract long term investors. Optimism prevails around the future of this sector as a whole which was reflected in the unprecedented rally in shares in 2012. We expect this trend to continue in the next five year driven by launch of Innovative drugs catering to unmet needs in Alzheimer’s, HCV, osteoporosis, RA, Psoriasis, MS, Dyslipidemia, Cystic fibrosis, Cancer and orphan diseases. Drug approvals and label expansion of existing portfolio of launched drugs and data from late stage pipeline drugs should maintain the growth momentum and investors interest.

2012 was recovering from the big acquisitions made in the last five years by this sector but we expect exercising of some restrain for similar large acquisitions as investors would like to see the returns reflected in the top-line and EPS. However in- licensing of early or mid stage compounds or small acquisitions will continue since the Rising Stars will keep throwing the bait by taking risks and innovate using novel technology platforms or validating novel targets for treating diseases.

Patent expiry impact is modest for the next five years for the sector as majority have “not so easy to copy” biologics and other drugs in their portfolio. They however are not complacent and are not leaving any stones unturned to meet the challenges as well as exploring emerging market opportunities with local partners. Favorable regulatory environment should finally see biosimilar mAbs entry in regulated markets in the next five years. The optimism of biosimilar players is reflected in the maturing pipeline. Para IV Filing from other generic players continues to pour leaving room for surprises and volatility.

Global Biopharmaceutical Outlook 2013 of the Mature Biotech sector released by MP Advisors provides valuations and an in depth analyses of biotech companies, their launched drug portfolio and promising drug candidates in the pipeline. The report discusses the competitive landscape of the targeted therapy areas and the innovative strategy each company is deploying to create or retain its leadership in the therapy areas. Forecast for major marketed drugs and drugs in the pipeline are included after factoring, competition, and risks from changing regulatory environment which could change the future market dynamics. Risk reward analyses of important upcoming milestones of the companies are included which should help fund managers as well as pharma company management to make critical decisions.

Macro Analysis
• Performance of the Mature Biotech companies recommended by MP Advisors in 2012 -report card is very impressive and we expect the positive sentiments to prevail in 2013 and beyond
• Valuation Multiples and Fundamentals- Drivers of Growth.
• MP Advisors’ Proprietary Sum-of-The-Parts Valuation and Top Picks for 2013
• Drug Approvals 2012-15
• Key Milestones During 2013/14
• Impact on revenue 2012-2017 from Patent Expiry and Strategies deployed to meet the challenges.
• Pipeline of Biosimilar mAbs
• Joint Ventures between innovators and biosimilar players
• Merger & Acquisitions Forecast- 2013-2020

In-depth Company Analysis
1. Acorda (ACOR)
1.1. Continuing Growth in AMPYRA’s Sales
1.2. Ex. US Sales – Risk Factored in the Current Price
1.3. Pipeline Beyond AMPYRA – AC105, diazepam
1.4. Takeover target
1.5. Sum of the parts valuation
1.6. Background

For more information kindly visit :

Global Pharmaceutical & Biotechnology Outlook 2013: Mature Biotech


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